Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. If there is going to be a war between Taiwan and China, we will fight the war ourselves, he said. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. Tensions continue to simmer . Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. Chinas military build-up is making a difference. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? All have been involved in sensitive military operations. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. Such possibilities seem remote at present. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. Principles matter, he writes. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. Would Japan? America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. What would war with China look like for Australia? Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Are bills set to rise? "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". Critical assets such as radars and airfields will immediately be targeted. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. Far fewer know their real story. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. He believes a blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. Mr. Xi has championed . the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. China is aware of this gap. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . Beijing has already put its assets in place. "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. China is a country located in Eastern Asia with an area of 9,596,961 km2 (land boundries: 22,457 km and costline 14,500 km). Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. And the operating distances are enormous. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. But apart from that, Australia has little military value to the US. But it took four vulnerable tanker aircraft to carry them over that 6000km round trip. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. One accident. The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. However, without the strong protection of the Australian forces, the world will be in peril from an unrestrained Emu army. "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. 2. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . "People in those days, in the spirit of compromise and understanding, were prepared to work together, if only for a short time. And a navy. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. What would war with China look like for Australia? No doubt Australian passions would run high. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. The contemplation of war can only be justified after all other means of settling differences have failed, and we are a long way from reaching this position (over Taiwan)," he says. Nor can a military modelled in its image. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. "Now, as we approach reaching 10 billion people on earth, we see more difficult problems arising from this population burden. Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure.